One War, Every Market: Why Your Nasi Lemak is Getting Expensive!

The “Mamak” Guide to the March 2026 Iran Conflict

Imagine one event that makes your petrol pricier, tanks your stocks, and somehow makes palm oil bosses richer—all in 30 days. That was March 2026. When the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, it wasn’t just news—it was a financial earthquake.

 

1. Oil: Where the Trouble Starts

Think of oil as the “blood” of the economy. When you mess with the supply, everything—from flight tickets to the price of your lunch—gets hit.

• The Shock: Brent crude oil jumped 55% in one month—the biggest jump ever.
• The Price Tag: It went from ~$67 in January to over $119 by the end of March.
• The Logic: Higher oil = higher transport costs = everything you buy becomes more expensive.

 

2. Stock Markets: Tech is Out, Energy is In

Higher oil doesn’t just hurt your car; it “squeezes” company profits. They pay more for transport and energy, so they make less money.

• The Losers: Tech giants like Meta and Microsoft dropped up to 10% in a week.
• The Hardest Hit: Japan and Korea got hammered because they don’t have their own oil.
• The Winners: Energy stocks jumped about 10% because they sell the oil!

 

3. Gold vs. USD: Why the “King” Won

Usually, people buy gold during war. But in March 2026, gold crashed 25% while the US Dollar hit a 9-month high. Here is why the Dollar won:

• Cash is King: You can’t buy oil or pay debts with gold bars. When prices spike, the world needs US Dollars to keep trading.
• Interest Rates: The Fed kept interest rates high. Why hold gold (which pays $0$ interest) when you can hold Dollars and earn a high return?.
• The Price Tag: Gold is priced in Dollars. When the Dollar gets stronger, gold automatically becomes too expensive for everyone else, so they stop buying.

 

4. Malaysia: The Double-Edged Sword

For us, this war is a “mixed bag.” We are losing in some areas but winning in others.

• The Pain: RON97 hit RM5.15/litre. The government is also cutting our RON95 subsidy quota from 300L to 200L starting April 1st.
• The Weak Ringgit: Our currency weakened toward RM4.07, making imported things more expensive.
• The Gain: Palm oil is booming (up 9.3%)! When petrol is expensive, the world uses palm oil for biodiesel.
• Bursa Heroes: Local giants like PETRONAS Chemicals and MISC saw their stocks rally hard.

 

What to Watch in April

• Peace Talks: If the war stops, oil prices will drop fast.
• The 200L Limit: April 1st is the “test” for Malaysian drivers. Will it be enough?
• Interest Rates: If oil stays above $100, don’t expect bank interest rates to go down anytime soon.

 

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Note: This is for learning only, not financial advice. Stay smart with your money!